Geoff Coyle Event: Videos

Geoff Coyle Event: Videos

Welcome to the Geoff Coyle Commemorative Event
Kim Warren, President International System Dynamics Society

Welcome on behalf of Department of Earth Science and Engineering
Professor John Monhemius, Roy Wright Professor of Mineral and Environmental Engineering

The Pioneering Work of the Bradford Group
Professor Eric Wolstenholme

The Diaspora of People Inspired by Geoff
Jonathan Coyle

The View from One of Geoff’s Students
Dr Bob Cavana,  Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand

Encounters with Geoff and His Work: Samples from a Timeline
Dr John Morecroft, London Business School

Contributions from the floor
Professor Graham Winch, Professor Brian Dangerfield, Mike Kennedy, Tony Troy



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2013 Conference News

UK Chapter of the International System Dynamics Society
Annual Conference  7th & 8th February 2013

12:30pm Thursday to 4pm Friday

Venue: London South Bank University
THEME : Planning for Uncertain Futures

Registration and light refreshments
13:30   Welcome by Chapter President
13:40   Assessing risk and return: the case of an innovative lending product. Santiago Braje (ING)
14:10  Dynamic Modelling of Telecommunication Service Delivery. Michael Lyons (BT)
14:40   Robust workforce planning: dealing with uncertainty. Andrew Woodward and Graham Willis (Centre for Workforce Intelligence)
15:10   Coffee / tea
15:30   The system dynamics of waste prevention: building evidence to support policy making at Defra. Rachel Freeman (Sustain/University of Bristol), Mike Yearworth (University of Bristol), Maria Angulo (DEFRA)
16:00   Modelling pastoral policy development to alleviate poverty in rural Kenya. Sally Brailsford (University of Southampton)
16:30   Discussion panel followed by the Steer Davies Gleave prize, award and presentation
18:00   Close
19:00   Dinner

Arrivals — coffees and teas
9:15     Group model building workshop. Etiënne Rouwette (Radboud University Nijmegen)
11:15   Coffee break
11:30   Group model building debrief
12:15   Chapter AGM
This short session will report on the status and activities of the UK Chapter, and provide an opportunity to elect new representatives to the Policy Council.
12.45   PhD Poster session and buffet lunch
13:45   The European Masters programme in system dynamics. Etiënne Rouwette (Radboud University Nijmegen)
14:00   Student Prize: award and presentation
14:30   Student presentations
16:00   Close

Booking Information
All bookings are being taken online at

Special offer: for Full participation tickets:
Participants on a “Full participation” ticket may bring a colleague for free. There are two conditions for this offer:

The second person has not attended a gathering before.

Names must be provided by the end of January.

To take advantage of this offer please add the second name and email on booking or contact us before the end of January with your colleague’s details.

Attendee registration includes all presentations and workshops including refreshments but not accommodation or the Thursday evening meal. Please select your tickets as appropriate.

We have not reserved rooms as we believe better deals are available online. E.g. a room at Days Inn Hotel Waterloo is available for around £70 on

Early bird rates are valid to 31st December 2012. Increased rates after January 31 are due to the need to give notice of numbers for venue.

Refund policy: cancellations prior to 31 January, full refund, from 1st February 50% refund.

to 31 December

January bookings

Late bookings
from 1 Feb

Full participation
(both days)




Thursday only




Student (Both days)




Steer Davies Gleave Prize for System Dynamics
The aim of this prize is to promote the use of System Dynamics to address real-world problems, and to raise awareness of System Dynamics by publicising examples of such good work. It is awarded for the best application of System Dynamics to a problem of significant interest in the UK. The work should demonstrably improve understanding of the problem by, for example, clarifying the definition of what is at issue and allowing possible solution to be formulated and tested. Submission deadline is January 13th, 2013. Please see our website for eligibility rules and further details

Student Prize
The UK Chapter of the System Dynamics Society awards an annual prize for the best piece of student work in system dynamics during the latest calendar year. The Award is announced and presented at the Annual Conference, held in the early months of the following year. Entries of up to 20 pages in total can be drawn from a dissertation for an undergraduate or postgraduate degree or a paper – whether published or not – or from a PhD. The winner(s) will receive a cheque for £250, a certificate, free attendance at the annual UK System Dynamics Conference and will be invited to make a short presentation on the work at the Conference. The deadline for submission is 13th January 2013. For further details please see:

Networking Meeting, London 13th September 2012

Networking Meeting

Date: 13th September 2012
Venue: Ye Olde Watling
Time: 6:00pm start, presentation at 7pm.

We will be holding a networking meeting in London on September 13th from 6pm onwards. It will be held at Ye Olde Watling, 29 Watling Street, London, EC4M 9BR, food and cash bar available. Booking is not necessary.

Kim Warren will talk about the Strategy exercise of the International System Dynamics Society from 7pm.


Report from the 2012 Annual Gathering

Annual Gathering 2012

THEME : Exploring Alternative Futures.
VENUE: London South Bank University
DATE: 9th/10th February 2012

The 14th Annual Gathering of the UK Chapter of the System Dynamics Chapter was held on February 9th and 10th at London South Bank University on the broad theme of ‘Exploring Alternative Futures’.  With an increased attendance from the previous year, there were three main speakers on the afternoon of Thursday 9 February 2012, followed by the Steer Davies Gleave prize presentation.  After an evening meal enjoyed at a nearby Italian restaurant, the Friday sessions included an interactive seminar and a series of short presentations by software vendors, followed by a student colloquium and the AGM.

Modelling a sustainable economy.
Emanuele Campiglio of the New Economics Foundation described work in progress to build a macroeconomic model of the UK economy in order to explore alternatives to existing economic paradigms.  The aim of the project is to explore how a modern developed economy might produce high employment without compromising environmental sustainability.  The concept has been based on Peter Victor’s low-growth system dynamics model of the Canadian economy.  The system dynamics model has been built around a core using conventional economic theory (standard production functions and aggregate demand relationships). Currently the model covers only the UK economy. Future work could include 1) application to other countries 2) explicit inclusion of the banking sector and international trade 3) more detailed modelling of relationships with stock-flow structures to avoid over-use of auxiliary variables.
Modeling a Sustainable Economy

Connecting SD with Strategy and Finance
Richard Stevenson of Cognitus gave his views on why he thought attempts to popularise system dynamics with mainstream management using ‘systems thinking’ and ‘strategy dynamics’ have fallen short.  He believes system dynamics has remained relatively obscure because it has not connected with the hard business realities of value creation and standard financial measurement.  Addressing this gap, the Business Value Cycle is proposed as a universal business model.  Strategy is then viewed as a balanced management of resources to create financial value.  The concept of the Business Value Cycle draws together insights from strategy dynamics, valuation and balanced management. One key idea Richard advocated was to generate outputs from SD models that are directly compatible with reports that finance people are used to seeing.  Richard  illustrated the application of the Business Value Cycle with a case study from the pharmaceutical industries where his approach had helped to make a major disinvestment decision.
Modeling Strategy and Business Value

Place your bets: what’s happening to gold?
Maurice Glucksman and Bianca Granara of Hamilton Ventures conducted real-time research with the audience based on their experience of advising a client on the gold investment market.

The price of gold has been increasing markedly over recent years. Investors often express widely divergent views on how the price might change in future based on speculative and intangible factors but rarely recognise  the long term drivers of supply and demand.

The presentation invited the audience to make predictions to mirror those made on “prediction markets” and then to bet on the future price of gold, using real money. This yielded a distribution of the predicted future price in 2014 that was approximately Normal.  An assessment based on some system dynamics modelling of the industry was then presented and the same question was posed to the audience, who were again invited to bet with real money.   With new information available, the result was a downward skew in the audience’s range of price predictions.  Winners were decided and their winnings collected, but it remains to be seen if their cash will be invested in gold.
What’s happening to gold? Place your bets

Steer Davies Gleave prize presentation:

Symmetric Partnership / Department of Health
The Steer Davies Gleave system dynamics prize is awarded annually for the best application of system dynamics modelling to a topic of wide public interest.  The winning entry this year was from the Symmetric Partnership, for their work on the “Alcohol Systems Model”, carried out for the Department of Health.  The prize was accepted by Douglas McKelvie on behalf of Symmetric Partnership, after which he gave a presentation describing the work.  At its heart was a four stock model that simulated how people move between different states of alcohol dependency, with various costed interventions available to slow down or reverse their transition to increased alcohol use. Douglas showed how the model can be used to assess intervention strategies, comparing outcomes against costs.  Although a spreadsheet model had been available previously, the new model included explicit dynamic relationships, and was capable of showing how there can be delays between initial investment and the resulting benefits, such as savings from fewer hospital admissions.  The model is now available for use by Primary Care Trusts.

Managing strategy in the asset-intensive utilities industry.
On  Friday morning, Bob Thurlby presented work on a four stock model of aging assets based on his extensive experience in the utilities industries.  Managing assets is a matter of balancing the allocation of resources between maintenance, refurbishment and replacement policies while also complying with external regulatory targets for performance.  The audience was invited to experiment with a microworld simulation to attempt to achieve a maximum net cash flow within regulatory constraints.  The session ended with a discussion on emerging threats and the tasks of managing risks and achieving resilience in the face of climate change, cyber-attacks and terrorism.
Risk and Resilience of the Critical National Infrastructure

Presentations by software vendors
Next came a series of presentations from SD software vendors to show how their products are evolving.   The vendors included Insight Maker, Sysdea by Strategy Dynamics Ltd, Goldsim, AnyLogic and Powersim. A paper flyer was distributed describing the new features available in isee Systems’software: ithink and Stella version 10.  An interesting theme was the growing availability of web-based modelling systems requiring no software installation.

Student colloquium
Along with poster presentations by other students, Matt Montgomery of Halcrow presented his work as part of his Engineering Doctorate at the Bristol University Systems Centre on systems-based sustainable design, construction and maintenance in the engineering and infrastructure industries. The “HalSTAR Systems” process enables users to efficiently and effectively identify context specific sustainability related issues and identify their indirect, secondary and cumulative effects. It allows causal loop diagrams to be produced, highlighting systemic behaviour and allowing negative effects to be mitigated and synergies to be enhanced. HalSTAR Systems is being designed into a piece of software which allows inter-project learning and the sharing of knowledge and risks between project teams
UKSD event – A system dynamics approach for sustainability

2012 Gathering; Presentations

Annual Gathering 2012

THEME : Exploring Alternative Futures.
VENUE: London South Bank University
DATE: Thursday 9th February commencing 12.00 – 10th February

Topics and Speakers:

Modeling a Sustainable Economy
Emanuele Campiglio, New Economics Foundation

Modeling Strategy and Business Value
Richard Stevenson

Risk and Resilience of the Critical National Infrastructure
Bob Thurlby

Modeling Business Prospects for Investors
Maurice Glucksman

Fourth Networking Event held at The Lowry Threatre, Salford, Greater Manchester.

The event began with two presentations looking at a Systems Approach to Strategic Planning in the Construction Industry from The Centre for Construction Innovation at Salford Business School. This was followed by the UK Chapter of the System Dynamics Society hosting an informal evening of talks and networking.

Slides available:

Systems Issues and Systems Models for the Construction, Brian Dangerfield, Salford Business School

Everything you wanted to know about System Dynamics, Stephen Underwood, Director of Strategy Development, Kier Group plc


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