UK Chapter of the System Dynamics Society

Invitation to lecture by Professor Peter Hovmand

Systems Thinking: Unlocking its potential to improve children’s outcomes

Wednesday 19 September

The Dartington Service Design Lab is hosting a lecture in Edinburgh, delivered by collaborator and experienced system dynamicist, Professor Peter Hovmand. Peter is the founder of the Social Systems Design Lab at the Washington University in St Louis. Professor Hovmand works with local and national governments, trusts and foundations across the developed and developing world, applying systems thinking approaches to the most pressing issues for children and young people and communities.

There is no cost associated with the event, but places are limited.

To reserve your place email  director@dartington.org.uk

David Lane’s excellent presentation “A Model Simulator: Lives of Jay W Forrester” from the 2017 Operational Research Conference is now available to watch on YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QY8T3bjYo90 

Do you want to carry out research that will help ensure vulnerable children get the right support? Are you passionate about social work? Exciting funded PhD opportunity in modelling policies for vulnerable children available at the University of Surrey in collaboration with Surrey County Council. For further information on this opportunity and how to apply to be part of an important transformation journey, visit the link below:

https://www.findaphd.com/search/ProjectDetails.aspx?PJID=98905

Strategy Dynamics have announced the new self-taught, online course “Learn Dynamic Business Modeling”: http://sdl.re/courses. The course comes in two parts with 17+ hours of instruction, follow-me demos and many models to keep, covering a wide range of business types and issues. Try the free http://sdl.re/modeling-getting-started/ classes first. Instructors are welcome to use these online courses with students, so class time is free for modelling real-world cases. Any questions on this or other topics – just ask at http://sdl.re/forum.

THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF BREXIT: A CHALLENGE FOR THE SYSTEM DYNAMICS COMMUNITY

The advent of Brexit will cause a shock to the economy which many commentators believe will be the most profound for a generation, possibly even since the Second World War. Anticipating what might transpire, without the aid of a modelling tool, seems slim. System Dynamics is well-known as a methodology for projecting dynamic behaviour in a complex system and so the challenge of modelling the economic effects of Brexit over the next ten years or so is one which the SD community should respond to. Below is an outline of such a ‘challenge’: can the SD community respond and contribute to this endeavour in strategic economic planning?

Although the financial crisis in 2008 took almost all economists by surprise, in the Brexit case we don’t have to attempt to foresee the event itself but we do need to consider the economic consequences. If the dynamics inherent to this economic shock can be modelled then the government and the Bank of England will know which trends to monitor closely and they will be placed on a footing to respond proactively rather than reactively.

This task should not be regarded as a competition but as a challenge which illustrates the utility of SD for economic modelling

THE DETAILS OF THE CHALLENGE

• Prepare and document an SD model projecting the consequences of Brexit on the UK economy; the team can consist of any number of persons
• Likely horizon is 10 years (2018-2028); model would depict the main economic variables such as GDP; inflation; interest rates; unemployment; government debt; consumer spending etc. Model can embrace fewer or more of these macro variables. It can be set at industry level, designed to address the consequences on a specific industry, if preferred.
• We have 2017 data to examine the immediate effects; most important here is the fall in the £
• Models to encompass a maximum of ~100 variables (rates; levels; aux). Parameters are extra
• Can use any SD (or indeed wider) modelling software which produces graphs covering the next 10 years
• Can submit up to TWO models (to cover any dilemmas you may have)

Make your submission to the President of the UK Chapter

There is a survey being carried out to capture attitudes of our Modelling & Simulation (M&S) community towards both Reproducibility and Open Science in simulation publishing.

There are major concerns that the results in many published peer-reviewed articles cannot be reproduced or verified independently.  Some journals are changing their policies to address these issues. Open Science approaches go further in that they encourage the open sharing of scientific artefacts (e.g. data, software, methods, processes, etc.) under appropriate terms and conditions to enable reuse, redistribution and reproduction of the research and its underlying data and methods.  Publishing policies in both Reproducibility and Open Science could have a major impact on how we approach M&S research in the future.

The survey consists of six sections and will take around 20-25 minutes to complete. The results will be published as both a report and a journal paper. Both will be open access.

The survey will be open until December 2018.

Access the survey at https://www.isurvey.soton.ac.uk/25864