Author Archives: Siôn Cave

The Spectrum of Approaches to Problem Solving – 22nd March 2019

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Category : News

Half day event on 22nd March 2019 at Cardiff Business School exploring Systems Engineering, System dynamics and Systems thinking approaches to problem solving. Jointly hosted by the EPSRC funded ReRuN project and the UK Chapter of the System Dynamics Society

Guest speakers:

  • Stephen Disney (Cardiff University) – Discrete Control Theory
  • Borja Ponte-Blanco (The Open University) – Dynamics of Remanufacturing
  • Syaribah Brice (Cardiff University) – Simulation approach in Healthcare
  • Siôn Cave (Decision Analysis Service Ltd) – System Dynamics in the Nuclear Sector
  • Rachel Freeman (University of Bristol) – Systems Thinking in Local Manufacturing

For more information and registration please email Ruini Qu (QuR4@cardiff.ac.uk)
Registration deadline: 4. Mar. 2019

More details here


Proven by Computer? System Dynamics and Disruption Claims

The Society of Construction Law has recently published “Proven by Computer? System Dynamics and Disruption Claims”.  The paper, available here, evaluates the potential for system dynamics modelling to be used as a form of delay and disruption analysis in adversarial construction dispute resolution. Ralph Goodchild gives a lawyer’s perspective on the use of SD modelling, which differs from the usual practice of looking directly at ‘real’ project records. He goes on to discuss the challenges of bringing a disruption claim based on an SD model, such as admissibility, the tension with witnesses of fact and the relationships between SD model evidence and traditional delay analysis.


Systems Thinking: Unlocking its potential to improve children’s outcomes

Category : News

Invitation to lecture by Professor Peter Hovmand

Systems Thinking: Unlocking its potential to improve children’s outcomes

Wednesday 19 September

The Dartington Service Design Lab is hosting a lecture in Edinburgh, delivered by collaborator and experienced system dynamicist, Professor Peter Hovmand. Peter is the founder of the Social Systems Design Lab at the Washington University in St Louis. Professor Hovmand works with local and national governments, trusts and foundations across the developed and developing world, applying systems thinking approaches to the most pressing issues for children and young people and communities.

There is no cost associated with the event, but places are limited.

To reserve your place email  director@dartington.org.uk


A Model Simulator: Lives of Jay W Forrester

Category : News

David Lane’s excellent presentation “A Model Simulator: Lives of Jay W Forrester” from the 2017 Operational Research Conference is now available to watch on YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QY8T3bjYo90 


PhD studentship opportunity in Modelling policies for vulnerable young people

Category : News

Do you want to carry out research that will help ensure vulnerable children get the right support? Are you passionate about social work? Exciting funded PhD opportunity in modelling policies for vulnerable children available at the University of Surrey in collaboration with Surrey County Council. For further information on this opportunity and how to apply to be part of an important transformation journey, visit the link below:

https://www.findaphd.com/search/ProjectDetails.aspx?PJID=98905


New self-taught, online course “Learn Dynamic Business Modeling”

Category : News

Strategy Dynamics have announced the new self-taught, online course “Learn Dynamic Business Modeling”: http://sdl.re/courses. The course comes in two parts with 17+ hours of instruction, follow-me demos and many models to keep, covering a wide range of business types and issues. Try the free http://sdl.re/modeling-getting-started/ classes first. Instructors are welcome to use these online courses with students, so class time is free for modelling real-world cases. Any questions on this or other topics – just ask at http://sdl.re/forum.


THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF BREXIT

Category : News

THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF BREXIT: A CHALLENGE FOR THE SYSTEM DYNAMICS COMMUNITY

The advent of Brexit will cause a shock to the economy which many commentators believe will be the most profound for a generation, possibly even since the Second World War. Anticipating what might transpire, without the aid of a modelling tool, seems slim. System Dynamics is well-known as a methodology for projecting dynamic behaviour in a complex system and so the challenge of modelling the economic effects of Brexit over the next ten years or so is one which the SD community should respond to. Below is an outline of such a ‘challenge’: can the SD community respond and contribute to this endeavour in strategic economic planning?

Although the financial crisis in 2008 took almost all economists by surprise, in the Brexit case we don’t have to attempt to foresee the event itself but we do need to consider the economic consequences. If the dynamics inherent to this economic shock can be modelled then the government and the Bank of England will know which trends to monitor closely and they will be placed on a footing to respond proactively rather than reactively.

This task should not be regarded as a competition but as a challenge which illustrates the utility of SD for economic modelling

THE DETAILS OF THE CHALLENGE

  • Prepare and document an SD model projecting the consequences of Brexit on the UK economy; the team can consist of any number of persons
  • Likely horizon is 10 years (2018-2028); model would depict the main economic variables such as GDP; inflation; interest rates; unemployment; government debt; consumer spending etc. Model can embrace fewer or more of these macro variables. It can be set at industry level, designed to address the consequences on a specific industry, if preferred.
  • We have 2017 data to examine the immediate effects; most important here is the fall in the £
  • Models to encompass a maximum of ~100 variables (rates; levels; aux). Parameters are extra
  • Can use any SD (or indeed wider) modelling software which produces graphs covering the next 10 years
  • Can submit up to TWO models (to cover any dilemmas you may have)

Make your submission to the President of the UK Chapter


Survey on Attitudes Towards Reproducibility and Open Science in Simulation Publishing

Category : News

There is a survey being carried out to capture attitudes of our Modelling & Simulation (M&S) community towards both Reproducibility and Open Science in simulation publishing.

There are major concerns that the results in many published peer-reviewed articles cannot be reproduced or verified independently.  Some journals are changing their policies to address these issues. Open Science approaches go further in that they encourage the open sharing of scientific artefacts (e.g. data, software, methods, processes, etc.) under appropriate terms and conditions to enable reuse, redistribution and reproduction of the research and its underlying data and methods.  Publishing policies in both Reproducibility and Open Science could have a major impact on how we approach M&S research in the future.

The survey consists of six sections and will take around 20-25 minutes to complete. The results will be published as both a report and a journal paper. Both will be open access.

The survey will be open until December 2018.

Access the survey at https://www.isurvey.soton.ac.uk/25864


Simulation Workshop SW18

Category : News

The Operational Research Society is running a Simulation Workshop (SW18) on 19th to 21st March 2018 at the Ettington Chase Hotel, near Stratford. More information on the event at www.theorsociety.com/SW18

It is still possible to submit posters for the event,  which offers a platform to show off the incredible SD work that you are involved with. (Plus there is a prize for best poster!). If you would like to submit a poster, then you need to submit a 150 word poster abstract to the Poster Stream, here   –  https://easychair.org/conferences/?conf=sw18  by the deadline of 8th January 2018.

This is open to all delegates i.e. from practice, simulation software development and research. Posters could contain:

  • An overview of a simulation case study either complete or in progress;
  • An overview of a simulation research project either complete or in progress;
  • A description of an important issue in simulation research or practice;
  • A description of a new way to visualise simulation results;
  • An overview of a piece of simulation software;
  • Insights from practice about how to successfully run simulation studies;
  • Links between simulation and analytics;
  • Links between simulation and behavioural OR

 


SD in healthcare at SCiO Open Meeting – Manchester – 16/10/17

Category : News

Society member Peter Lacey will be presenting on ‘System Dynamics in Healthcare’ at the SCiO Open Meeting being held at Manchester Business School on October 16. Peter will provide insights from the use of System Dynamics modelling over a 20 year career in health and social care consultancy. He will provide people with a walk through of some existing models and explore some of the pitfalls and benefits of the approach. There will be an opportunity to explore both quantitative and qualitative elements of systems and how they feature in SD modelling against a background of the culture and expectations of the health and care system today.

SCiO is a group for systems practitioners and is based in the UK, but has members internationally. It is focused primarily on systems practice and practitioners rather than on pure theory and on systems practice as applied to issues of organisation.

The open meeting costs £20 to attend, and also includes the following presentations:

  • Portia Light – Fake art, bad science and what we can learn from using systems thinking to examine the mechanics of law
  • Steve Whitla – Making more meaningful models: A hands-on guide
  • Benjamin Taylor – Meta-contextuality through the medium of Bongard games: why methods and practices depend on context

More information on the event here – http://www.scio.org.uk/node/7503


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