Author Archives: Siôn Cave

New Book: “The Dynamics of Care – Understanding People Flows in Health and Social Care”

Category : News , Recent

Members Eric Wolstenholme and Douglas McKelvie have published a new book: “The Dynamics of Care – Understanding People Flows in Health and Social Care”, with a foreword from Jack Homer.  (https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-21878-2)

As the title suggests, the book is dedicated to practical system dynamics work in one field – health and social care. It describes the core stock/flow and feedback structures used to represent treatments and conditions and narrates a selection of consultancy projects from over 80 undertaken by the authors over recent years. Emphasis is placed on the insights generated into some of the most persistent issues of the day in this field.


Poster Submission Now Open For SW20

Category : News , Recent

Posters can now be submitted for the Operational Research Society’s Simulation Workshop. The event is being held at Loughbough University on 30 March – 1 April 2020. See the SW20 website for further information.

Submit your poster title and abstract by 12 January 2020. See submission instructions and guidelines on poster setup. A prize will be awarded to the author with the best pitch and poster.

For further information on poster submission, please contact Lucy Morgan: l.e.morgan@lancaster.ac.uk

SW20 website: www.theorsociety.com/sw20


Strategic Modelling to Support Decision Making for the North – MORE TICKETS!

Category : Networking , News

More tickets now available for our “Strategic Modelling to Support Decision Making for the North” which is being on 22nd October as we have secured a bigger venue! This is a joint event with THINKlab at the University of Salford, Manchester. More information is available here:

Strategic Modelling to Support Decision Making for the North, 22 Oct 2019


The Spectrum of Approaches to Problem Solving – 22nd March 2019

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Category : News

Half day event on 22nd March 2019 at Cardiff Business School exploring Systems Engineering, System dynamics and Systems thinking approaches to problem solving. Jointly hosted by the EPSRC funded ReRuN project and the UK Chapter of the System Dynamics Society

Guest speakers:

  • Stephen Disney (Cardiff University) – Discrete Control Theory
  • Borja Ponte-Blanco (The Open University) – Dynamics of Remanufacturing
  • Syaribah Brice (Cardiff University) – Simulation approach in Healthcare
  • Siôn Cave (Decision Analysis Service Ltd) – System Dynamics in the Nuclear Sector
  • Rachel Freeman (University of Bristol) – Systems Thinking in Local Manufacturing

For more information and registration please email Ruini Qu (QuR4@cardiff.ac.uk)
Registration deadline: 4. Mar. 2019

More details here


Proven by Computer? System Dynamics and Disruption Claims

The Society of Construction Law has recently published “Proven by Computer? System Dynamics and Disruption Claims”.  The paper, available here, evaluates the potential for system dynamics modelling to be used as a form of delay and disruption analysis in adversarial construction dispute resolution. Ralph Goodchild gives a lawyer’s perspective on the use of SD modelling, which differs from the usual practice of looking directly at ‘real’ project records. He goes on to discuss the challenges of bringing a disruption claim based on an SD model, such as admissibility, the tension with witnesses of fact and the relationships between SD model evidence and traditional delay analysis.


Systems Thinking: Unlocking its potential to improve children’s outcomes

Category : News

Invitation to lecture by Professor Peter Hovmand

Systems Thinking: Unlocking its potential to improve children’s outcomes

Wednesday 19 September

The Dartington Service Design Lab is hosting a lecture in Edinburgh, delivered by collaborator and experienced system dynamicist, Professor Peter Hovmand. Peter is the founder of the Social Systems Design Lab at the Washington University in St Louis. Professor Hovmand works with local and national governments, trusts and foundations across the developed and developing world, applying systems thinking approaches to the most pressing issues for children and young people and communities.

There is no cost associated with the event, but places are limited.

To reserve your place email  director@dartington.org.uk


A Model Simulator: Lives of Jay W Forrester

Category : News

David Lane’s excellent presentation “A Model Simulator: Lives of Jay W Forrester” from the 2017 Operational Research Conference is now available to watch on YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QY8T3bjYo90 


PhD studentship opportunity in Modelling policies for vulnerable young people

Category : News

Do you want to carry out research that will help ensure vulnerable children get the right support? Are you passionate about social work? Exciting funded PhD opportunity in modelling policies for vulnerable children available at the University of Surrey in collaboration with Surrey County Council. For further information on this opportunity and how to apply to be part of an important transformation journey, visit the link below:

https://www.findaphd.com/search/ProjectDetails.aspx?PJID=98905


New self-taught, online course “Learn Dynamic Business Modeling”

Category : News

Strategy Dynamics have announced the new self-taught, online course “Learn Dynamic Business Modeling”: http://sdl.re/courses. The course comes in two parts with 17+ hours of instruction, follow-me demos and many models to keep, covering a wide range of business types and issues. Try the free http://sdl.re/modeling-getting-started/ classes first. Instructors are welcome to use these online courses with students, so class time is free for modelling real-world cases. Any questions on this or other topics – just ask at http://sdl.re/forum.


THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF BREXIT

Category : News

THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF BREXIT: A CHALLENGE FOR THE SYSTEM DYNAMICS COMMUNITY

The advent of Brexit will cause a shock to the economy which many commentators believe will be the most profound for a generation, possibly even since the Second World War. Anticipating what might transpire, without the aid of a modelling tool, seems slim. System Dynamics is well-known as a methodology for projecting dynamic behaviour in a complex system and so the challenge of modelling the economic effects of Brexit over the next ten years or so is one which the SD community should respond to. Below is an outline of such a ‘challenge’: can the SD community respond and contribute to this endeavour in strategic economic planning?

Although the financial crisis in 2008 took almost all economists by surprise, in the Brexit case we don’t have to attempt to foresee the event itself but we do need to consider the economic consequences. If the dynamics inherent to this economic shock can be modelled then the government and the Bank of England will know which trends to monitor closely and they will be placed on a footing to respond proactively rather than reactively.

This task should not be regarded as a competition but as a challenge which illustrates the utility of SD for economic modelling

THE DETAILS OF THE CHALLENGE

  • Prepare and document an SD model projecting the consequences of Brexit on the UK economy; the team can consist of any number of persons
  • Likely horizon is 10 years (2018-2028); model would depict the main economic variables such as GDP; inflation; interest rates; unemployment; government debt; consumer spending etc. Model can embrace fewer or more of these macro variables. It can be set at industry level, designed to address the consequences on a specific industry, if preferred.
  • We have 2017 data to examine the immediate effects; most important here is the fall in the £
  • Models to encompass a maximum of ~100 variables (rates; levels; aux). Parameters are extra
  • Can use any SD (or indeed wider) modelling software which produces graphs covering the next 10 years
  • Can submit up to TWO models (to cover any dilemmas you may have)

Make your submission to the President of the UK Chapter


Join the UK Chapter

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