Author Archives: Lee Jones

Developing Mathematical Models in Healthcare: Special Workshop on System Dynamics

Developing Mathematical Models in Healthcare: Special Workshop on System Dynamics

The UK Chapter is delighted to be supporting a seminar on the application of System Dynamics to challenges in the health and social care sector. The Health Modelling Centre Cymru (HMC2) is hosting the event, which will include the following presentations:

“What is System Dynamics?” – John Hayward, University of South Wales

“Health and social care workforce modelling at a national level” – Siôn Cave, Decision Analysis Services Ltd

“Health & Social Care Integration with the Cumberland Initiative” – Douglas McKelvie, The Symmetric Partnership LLP

The seminar is being held on Wednesday, 27th January 2016 at the Cardiff University School of Mathematics. This is our first event in Wales and is open to all with an interest in System Dynamics. More information available here.

We look forward to seeing you there!

UK Chapter Gathering at the Shard, December 17th

East Lecture Room, The Shard from 15:45 to 17:00 on Thursday 17th December

Douglas McKelvie
The Symmetric Partnership LLP

Using System Dynamics to Model Health and Social Care Integration Policy Based on Risk Stratification Tools

Risk Stratification tools are widely used in healthcare internationally to summarise the needs of a population and target services / interventions, often with a preventive intention, such as to reduce emergency hospital bed-use. In this example, a local authority, working with NHS partners, used modelling to explore why a case-management service based on a commonly-used tool (Patients at Risk of Rehospitalisation – PARR) appeared to have a disappointing impact. Whilst risk stratification can be viewed as an application of Big Data, focusing on Stock measurements, the insights added by System Dynamics showed the importance of understanding Flow, in the form of the underlying churn of people between risk groups. Within the context of policy-modelling, this approach can be considered to be an application of Dynamic Impact Analysis.

Followed by information about the 2016 conference.

And some regulations:

Everybody has to be registered beforehand as the reception in the ground level needs to have a list of attendees at least two days before the event. There is no chance that somebody can enter if he/she just comes without being in the list.

There will be an X-Ray machine in the ground floor reception and all visitors will need to have their coats and bags scanned.

It is important that all guests bring some form of ID.

It is important to register your attendance by clicking here by December 14th.

We will then meet in a pub nearby for a Xmas drink from around 17:00 until around 18:30.

Km Waren’s Keynote talk at Young OR 19

“Recorded at YOR19 conference, Aston UK, September 2015, this demonstrates a simple start to the AgileSD process for a policing case, using the Sysdea browser-based software. The video then explains the process and its advantages of speed, impact and reliability.”


Event news and Geoff Coyle Prize

Here’s a little news to keep you up to date with the latest Policy Council initiatives.  I did say it was a little news….


As you are no doubt aware, the UK Chapter hold a (seemingly) random series of events  throughout the year and most of these are held in London, in response to previous questionnaires.  Our next such random event, to be held in Edinburgh on the 19th of this month, will no doubt prove once again to be interesting, entertaining and an ideal opportunity to meet fellow practitioners.

We like these events, and we want more!  This is where you come in.  The UK Chapter wants to encourage others to organise relevant events to be publicised to the wider community.  So, if you know of such events or are organising or thinking of organising an event, we are here to help.

In addition to publicising your event to almost 500 members (actually 421 but it sounds better) we can provide some financial support up to a maximum of £500.  This can be used towards travel & subsistence costs for speakers or for event hire.  A formal submission would need to be made to the Policy Council who will meet in a secret location in a dark corner of the island to determine the worthiness of your begging letter, I mean, request for financial assistance.

Not all events can be supported, if you want to increase the chance that your event will attract financial support, we are particularly looking for events covering a specific industry sector or theme.

In addition to the above, if there are any events you believe would be of interest to the membership (either national or local events), please do let us know, preferably with a link to the event notice or some information regarding subject, location and time.  We will then advertise the event on our website and (subject to the number of such notices we receive) publicise via email to the subscribed members.

Geoff Coyle Prize

The Geoff Coyle prize is to be awarded for innovative system dynamics work in the UK.  Since Geoff Coyle had encouraged early career developments in SD, this will form the scope of the prize for either research or practice.
The prize takes the form of a medal and will be presented at our annual conference on April 15th 2016 .

Guidelines for submission:

UK-based nominee

Early career: within 10 years of commencing use of SD

Only submissions reported in calendar year considered

Description of work and contribution (no more than 800 words,12pt font size in plain text)

Discretionary award by 3 member panel of policy council

No age limit applies

The awarding panel will contact short-listed nominees in order to discuss their work, prior to award.

Closing date Friday 1st April 2016

Click here to nominate.

Announcement from Strategy Dynamics

Announcement: Enterprise Architecture and System Dynamics

Strategy Dynamics is pleased to announce a practice-and-research collaboration with Chinese Culture University of Taiwan into the opportunity for system dynamics to contribute to Enterprise Architecture (the mapping of organisational processes and capabilities as a platform for enterprise-wide information-systems planning – for more on the topic, see the Open Group, a network of global organisations collaborating on EA

A summary slide-show on the connection we will be exploring is at A video of the announcement is at Segments of a lecture to an Enterprise Architecture conference in Taipei on the EA<>SD linkages are in a playlist at Essentially, EA focuses on descriptive mapping of an organisation’s business processes, while SD builds working models of the system itself, on which those processes act – so combining the two should be both possible and valuable, especially to the IS/IT community.

We are delighted to be working with Professors Simon Lu and Min-Ren Yan and Dr Lesly Lin at CCU’s School of Continuing Education on this.

Kim Warren, Strategy Dynamics Ltd. Enquiries to


July 1st get-together, final final reminder!

We have had a fantastic response and the event is now full.  Well, I say full, if you turn up unannounced you may be able to sit on someone’s lap and beg a sip of coffee.  So this is just a last-minute reminder for the 20 people who have signed up (we know who you are) that the event starts at 4pm and will finish by 6pm, next Wednesday the 1st of July.  Afterwards, a number of us will likely move on to a local pub (the Bree Louise  near Euston station) for a thirst-quenching ale (well, the weather is slated to be 32C and sunny on Wednesday!).

If you are not coming to the presentations but would like to join us for a chat and a drink, then all are welcome, no need to save a space!


Lee Jones
VP Membership

System Dynamics at Euro2015

Of interest to members of the UK Chapter, if you don’t already know, there is a  System Dynamcs and Simulation stream at this year’s European Conference on Operational Research, chaired by Markus Schwaninger.

Details are:

27th European Conference on Operational Research
12th-15th July, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow

UK Chapter Event

Three or four times a year, the chapter organises an informal “networking” event where you can meet SD practitioners and members of the policy council.  Such events often include short presentations by anyone with anything interesting to say!

Our next event is…

Date: 1st July 2015
Time: 4 – 6 pm
Venue: Central House, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London, WC1H 0NN, Jevons Room, first floor (Please ask the porter to let you into the building.)

Rachel Freeman (University of Bristol)
Revisiting Jevons’ Paradox with System Dynamics – an application of SD to evaluate a complex socio-technical issue and test policy options

Nicole Zimmermann (UCL)
Meaning-making in the process of participatory system dynamics research

Further details

UK Chapter Document Library Updated

Hi, just a quick update; the online resource for UK Chapter events, from 1999 to the present day has been, has been updated with many more papers/presentations etc.

Click here to access the online document library.

Annual conference moves to the Shard

Hold the date!

We are pleased to announce that the annual conference for 2016 will be held on April 14th and 15th and that, with the support of Martin Kunc and Warwick Business School, we will be holding the event at the Shard, London.

If anyone would like to offer up a presentation for next year please contact one of the policy council.

If you would like to be kept informed of conference developments or upcoming Chapter events, then please do join the Chapter, it’s free and we promise you will only receive emails of immediate interest to the UK SD community.

Join the UK Chapter

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